8:30 AM SATURDAY,  AUGUST 28, 2010

Month to date precipitation for August is 0.15 inches.  Year to date precipitation for water year 2009-2010 beginning October 1, 2009 is 12.02 inches.  For the most current weather observations in Carson City, NV, updated every 15 minutes, CLICK HERE.

SHORT TERM:

Fall like weather is expected over the next few days.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms area wide with snow possible in the Sierra above 8500 feet on Sunday.

An unseasonably strong trough is beginning to move into the area this morning.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms cover much of Northern California at this time. This strong trough is shifting slowly southeast at this time.  A few clouds with gusty winds will continue through the morning ahead of the cold front located just west of the Sierra crest.  By this afternoon, clouds and showers will increase especially north of the Reno area while gusty winds will continue south.  Showers will begin to push south into this evening with much cooler temperatures.  Highs today will only be in the upper 60s to low 70s.  As the cold core of the low settles in overnight and Sunday, shower coverage will increase especially during the day with any additional heating.  Snow is possible above 8500 feet tonight and Sunday, so some light accumulations of an inch or two are possible over the highest peaks.  Highs on Sunday may have a a difficult time even reaching 60 in the valleys if clouds and showers persist.  Total precipitation amounts are forecast to be around 1/10th of an inch of rain in the valleys with 1/4 to 1/3 of an inch in the Sierra.  With the cool and damp conditions expected, we should see a significant reduction of the fire danger over the next few days.

Showers will begin to decrease Sunday night as the low gradually pulls off to the east.  If skies clear Sunday night, very cool morning lows may occur Monday morning with some lows in the 30s with even colder low temperatures in the Sierra valleys.  A gradual warming trend will begin on Monday lasting through the end of next week.  Temperatures will return to near normal in the mid and upper 80s with typical breezy afternoon conditions returning late in the week as another trough deepens along the Pacific coast.

EXTENDED LONG RANGE:

As the trough departs next week, a ridge will build into the desert southwest for a significant warming trend during the week leading into the Labor Day weekend.  This trend will again be short lived as another trough drops down from the Gulf of Alaska to bring cooler and windy weather by the end of the Labor Day weekend into week 2.  Looking further out, La Nina has continues to strengthen as sea surface temperature anomalies continue to drop below average along with very cool sea surface temperatures along the west coast.  This will provide a continuation of a trough type pattern along the California coast.  Initially this will bring periods of cool unsettled weather to the northern half of California and Nevada through the month of September.   As with most ENSO years, weather patterns in our area are on the border with wet and dry weather.  Typically as we go into the fall season, the storm track will favor the Pacific Northwest while California and Nevada typically remain dry with clear cold nights and sunny days with several offshore wind events into the month of October. 

R. Sandberg

CONTACT INFO:  carsonspotter@earthclimate.info

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